Sports Saturday Preview

It’s weekend again already, and we have plenty of horse racing and football to get stuck into, with the likes of Richard Hannon-trained Toronado bidding to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita, the return to the track for Silviniaco Conti, who looks to win the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase for the second time in 3 years, and a little matter of the Manchester Derby from the Etihad on Sunday.

 

So, we’ll start with a quick look at the BET365 CHARLIE HALL CHASE, from Wetherby (3:15), which should be a good contest between some top jumpers, with Silviniaco Conti, Taquin Du Seuil, Double Ross and Menorah amongst the 7 runners set to compete. Paul Nicholls, trainer of Silviniaco Conti, is quoted as saying, "He's in good form and I've obviously had the race in mind for a while. I think he's in the same place as he was two seasons ago, when he started off by winning here before he went on and won the Betfair. This looks a nice starting point for him. It's a good prize too."  The chestnut gelding is 5/4 favourite for the 25 furlong contest, and he clearly sets the standard for this one. He’s 3 from 5 at the distance and 1 from 1 at the course.

You can watch this race, and seven others, live on Channel 4. The action includes 3 Listed races, and 4 Graded races, from Wetherby, Ascot and Down Royal (IRE).

 

Looking through the Barclays Premier League games, there are a few tough calls if you’re looking for a bet this weekend. A rejuvenated Newcastle side host Liverpool in the early kick-off, and have every chance of picking up at least a point, Swansea travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton, who haven’t been the best at home so far this season, Leicester host West Brom, and Stoke City entertain West Ham, who look to continue their impressive start to the season.

Things don’t get easier for Burnley, as they play Arsenal at the Emirates, still in search of their first league win of the season. Harry Redknapp will be looking to add to his decent record against Chelsea in recent times, but I can see Chelsea tearing this QPR defence apart this weekend.

 

Bets for Saturday

For the racing, my money would be on Toronado 5/2 and Silviniaco Conti 5/4

Draw Double on Everton v Swansea and Hull City v Southampton is of interest to me – 12.5/1 BET365

Wednesday’s Racing – Trainers To Follow

There’s a decent day of racing for today, as we head closer to a big weekend of action. We have jumps meetings from Taunton and Worcester, and in Ireland at Punchestown, as well as flat meetings at Nottingham, and Kempton on the Polytrack this evening.

I’ve got a couple of random stats and trainers to follow for today, to aid you in your selections, and pick some winners out for you.

 

Trainers To Follow

Taunton – Phillip Hobbs; in-form of late, and has decent record at this course in recent years

1:40pm – State Department             5/1

4:40pm – Dry Ol’Party                    11/8

 

Worcester – Rebecca Curtis; this lady is absolutely flying at the moment, and I’m sure there’s more to come. She also has a very good 31% strike rate at this course over the last few years.

1:20pm – Red Devil Lads              11/2

2:20pm – Jessie Webster              10/3

3:50pm – El Macca                         5/2

4:20pm – Moral Hazard                  7/4

 

Warren Greatrex is another one with a very good record at this course, and is in-form of late. He has two runners at Worcester today (1:20 - Silent Knight 9/1 and 2:20 – Miss Sophierose 8/1).

 

Longshot from Nottingham

Joey Haynes is having a good season at this course, showing a 33% strike rate, and he rides Ultimate Act for Seamus Mullins (4:00) – 25/1

Barclays Premier League Round-up

A twist in the Barclays Premier League this weekend, which sees an unlikely top 4 at this early stage.

 The lunchtime kick-off from Upton Park saw City lose 2-1 to West Ham, with in-form striker, Sakho scoring in his sixth consecutive game, adding to Amalfitano’s first half opener. David Silva hit back minutes after the Hammers second but the sky blues were unable to find an equaliser. West Ham now sit in fourth place with 5 wins from 9 games.

Southampton moved into second place with a 1-0 win over Mark Hughes’ Stoke City, at St Mary’s. Sadio Mane got his first Saints goal, to give them a deserved first half lead. Pelle was unable to add to his impressive scoring record, as he hit the bar for a second time, with a well-directed header early in the second half. Stoke had a few chances of their own, but were unable to break-down a solid Saints defence.

Southampton have the best defensive record in the league by far, having conceded just 5 times in their opening 9 games, and only twice in their last six. Personally, I really like Koeman as a manager, and I hope he can continue to do a fantastic job, which began by losing £100 million worth of players in the summer.

In the other games on Saturday, Liverpool wasted numerous chances at home to Hull City, as they had to settle for a 0-0 draw, and another game without a goal for them, and Balotelli still in search of his first Liverpool League goal. Sunderland were at it again, as they gifted Arsenal, and striker Sanchez, two goals. Mistakes from Wes Brown in the first half, and then Minnone late into stoppage time at the end of the game, gave the Gunners a 2-0 win. West Brom came from two down against Crystal Palace, at the Hawthorns to earn a point, as in-form Berahino calmly slotted home a 93^rd minute penalty, 2-2 the final score. In the evening kick-off from the Liberty Stadium, a Bony double helped Swansea to a much-needed victory, against a poor Leicester City. That’s the Swans first win in six, and Wilfred Bony has now scored 4 goals in his last 3 games. It was a timely win for Gary Monk’s side, with tough games against Everton, Arsenal and Manchester City to follow.

Sunday’s clash of the day came from Old Trafford, as Van Gaal took on old friend, Mourinho in the 16:00 kick-off. A dramatic late equaliser from Dutchman Robin Van Persie, gave United a 1-1 draw, and the Red Devils recent form is beginning to look a lot healthier.

Didier Drogba had given Chelsea the lead after heading home a Cesc Fabregas corner in the 53^rd minute, and United didn’t look like getting anything from the game, as they wasted chances. But after Phil Dowd had sent Ivanovic off for a second yellow card in the last minute, for a soft foul on Di Maria, it gave the reds one last chance, with a free-kick near the corner on the left side. Di Maria’s perfect cross found Fellaini in space, and his powerful header was palmed out by Courtois, only to fall to the deadly left foot of Van Persie, who smashed home from 10 yards, to send the Old Trafford crowd wild. Mourinho, fair to say, unimpressed.

The Monday Night Football came from Loftus Road, and a much-needed win for Harry Redknapp and his QPR side, as they beat a poor Villa side, who continue to slide down the table after a promising start to the season. A goal in each half for Charlie Austin ensured just a second league win of the season for QPR, which moved them above Burnley, dropping the clarets to the bottom of the table.

There were chances for both sides, and Villa will be happy to have Benteke back, although he may need a bit of time, as it was a long absence. Villa have now scored just 4 goals in their opening 9 league games, their last goal coming in the 1-0 away win at Anfield on September 13^th.

 

#	Team	Pl	W	D	L	F	A	Pts	+/-
1	Chelsea	9	7	2	0	24	9	23	15
2	Southampton	9	6	1	2	20	5	19	15
3	Manchester City	9	5	2	2	19	10	17	9
4	West Ham United	9	5	1	3	17	12	16	5
5	Arsenal	9	3	5	1	15	11	14	4

 

Anytime Scorers – The Best Value

There are a couple of players I’ve looked at to find the best value anytime scorer bets for this weekend’s Barclays Premier League action, and to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. They’re only recommended should the players listed start the game. So, who are they?

M. Diame (Hull)       – 5     games - 4 goals – 5/1

F. Lampard (M.City) – 2(3) games – 2 goals – 7/4

N. Chadli (Tott)       – 7      games – 4 goals – 13/5

S. Coleman (Eve)    – 4(1) games – 2 goals – 7/1

 

 

Others to consider are.....

 

C. Eriksen (Tott)         - 8 games     - 3 goals

S. Naismith (Eve)       - 7(1) games - 4 goals

M. Schneiderlin (Sou) - 8 games      - 3 goals

N. Dyer (Swa)           - 8 games       - 3 goals

Saturday’s Racing Action - Key Stats

There’s plenty of quality racing to get stuck into this Saturday, with two Group 3’s and a Listed race from Newbury, Graded races from Aintree and Chepstow, and the final Group 1 of the flat season from Doncaster, to name just a few. So, any help picking out the winners is certainly going to be a god-send, and hopefully the stats below can help bring home a few winners, on what will prove to be a tough day for the punters, no doubt.

A P McCoy returns from injury at Chepstow and has two rides booked for owner J P McManus. Before injury, McCoy had won 4 of his last 5 rides – 80% - He will partner Son Du Berlais for Nicky Henderson in the Persian War Novices' Hurdle (3:35) – 13/8 (bet365) and Regal Encore for Anthony Honeyball in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (4:10) – 3/1 (Paddy Power).

 

Jockey, Charles Bishop, shows a profit of £80.81 (from £1 stakes) when riding for Mick Channon this season. He rides Lackaday in the 2:10 at Doncaster – 40/1 (bet365).

 

Leighton Aspell has a strike rate of 67% when riding for trainer, Emma Lavelle at Chepstow. He takes the ride on Casino Markets in the 1:55 – 3.45 (betfair exchange).

 

Staying at Chepstow, Paul John has a strike rate of 100% when riding for Victor Dartnall. He takes the ride on Shammick Boy. Trainer, Dartnall also has a 60% strike rate in the last fortnight, with 3 wins from 5 – 11/1 (bet365).

 

Silvestre De Sousa and William Haggas combination shows an impressive 37% strike rate (profit £38.69) – De Sousa rides Battalion in the 2:20 at Newbury – 5/1 (Paddy Power).

 

Tony Hamilton has a strike rate of 45% when riding for owner Cheveley Park Stud. Hamilton partners Dutch Courage in the 4:40 at Newbury – 17/2 (William Hill).

Mario Balotelli – Is his time up at Liverpool already!?

It’s fair to say it’s not been the best of starts for Italy’s ‘flamboyant’ striker, Mario Balotelli, and his Liverpool career. A total of ten games so far, and says it all when he has more yellow cards than goals, though surprisingly, no red cards as yet. Of course, it’s still early days, and you can’t always judge a player on 10 games, but this is Balotelli.

Watching the games he’s played of late, he looks disinterested, selfish, and stewing on the mistake he’s made in joining Liverpool. Probably because Brendan Rogers won’t be taking any shit from him, and he’s not thought of as ‘the main man’ at the club. Who knows what goes through this man’s mind. It’s disappointing when a player has the potential to be one of the best, but can’t be bothered to put in the effort to get there, and only try when they feel like it. They don’t deserve to be at these high-profile clubs.

And it’s not just on the field Balotelli makes talking points, where this week, he angered manager Brendan Rogers for his half-time shirt-swap with Real Madrid’s Pepe, and then it emerged Greater Manchester police are investigating claims the Liverpool striker ‘threatened’ a woman who was taking pictures of his Ferrari, in the Whythenshawe area of Manchester, on Thursday. He just can’t help himself, always has to get involved.

So, it begs the question; is his time up already? I believe it probably is, even this early, and if he’s not loaned out as early as the January transfer window, he’ll certainly be gone in summer I’m sure. The longer he goes without scoring the more frustrated he’ll become, which inevitably will lead to a red card, or him being sat on the subs bench, and you know he won’t stand for that. Liverpool and Brendan Rogers won’t stand for his on and off-field antics, which will happen, he won’t change, and you can already see the plans being sorted to get rid, and bring in a more suited player to Liverpool’s proud culture.

Only making an effort and scoring goals can change the boards mind, and I don’t see that happening.

So the search for Suarez’s replacement goes on.

Elm Park To Run Away With The Racing Post Trophy?

A P O’Brien heads to Doncaster on Saturday looking to claim the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy for a fourth time in 6 years. He sends Newmarket winner Aloft and once-raced Jacobean over, with William Buick and Colm O'Donoghue taking the rides. Jacobean impressed on debut, racing in the rear before making big strides towards the finish to take second behind stable mate Royal Navy Ship, in a maiden at the Curragh.

Royal Lodge winner, Elm Park heads the market (5/2 Boylesports) and is my pick for this feature race. Group 2 winner last time, and can stretch to four consecutive wins here. The colt appears to go on any ground, having won on soft, good, and good-firm most recently, and the forecast soft shouldn’t cause any problems. Trainer, Andrew Balding, is looking for his first Group One winner on home-soil since 2003, when Casual Look won the Oaks Glory at Epsom. Andrea Atzeni takes the ride, and would love to cap a very good season, with a Group 1 winner on Saturday.

In all the race should be competitive, and a good one to watch, and there's case for a few of these to beat off the favourite.

There’s plenty of racing action on Saturday, with meetings at Aintree, Chepstow, Doncaster, Leopardstown (IRE), Newbury, Stratford, Wexford (IRE), and finally, evening racing on the all-weather from Wolverhampton.  

Premier League Preview and Tips

Saturday’s Barclay’s Premier League fixtures begin at Upton Park, where West Ham host Manchester City, who will be disappointed with the midweek Champions League game away to CSKA, throwing away a two-goal lead, albeit through the softest of penalty decisions.

West Ham find themselves up in fourth place, and with two quality, in-form strikers, Sakho and Valencia, they can cause a few headaches for Kompany, and company……..Excuse the pun. Having said that, I can’t see the sky blues losing this one, especially with a striker in more deadly form than the hammers duo. City need to keep Aguero fit in they want any chance of winning the title this season.

Both teams to score is currently 4/6, and a sure bet for me.

Then, it’s onto the four 15:00pm kick-offs, as Hull travel to Anfield, high-flying, and high-scoring Southampton host a tough Stoke side, Sunderland will be looking to pay back there fans a little at home to Arsenal, and an average clash from the bottom half of the table with West Brom and Crystal Palace battling it out at the Hawthorns.

Liverpool got lucky last week against QPR, in a mad last ten minutes at Loftus Road, and I’m sure Bruce’s Hull side won’t make things easy for them in this one either. I do expect Liverpool to come away with the victory, although odds of 4/11 don’t appeal. Again, both teams to score is a bet I’m looking too, currently 8/11.

The evening kick-off on Saturday, comes from the Liberty Stadium, Swansea against Leicester. Leicester have been in poor form since their triumphant 5-3 home win against Manchester United in September. Away from home, they’ve scored just the one (compared to 10 at home), with loses against Chelsea, Palace and Newcastle.

Swansea’s home form has been good so far this season, with their only home defeat coming against Southampton, and a late Wanyama goal. The Swans should win this comfortably enough, and are currently 19/20 on BET365. I'd probably go for a double with Swansea and West Brom TO WIN at 2.72/1 - BET365

 

Sunday has 3 Barclay’s Premier League games, with Spurs hosting Newcastle and Everton travelling to Burnley for the early kick-offs, before the clash of the weekend from Old Trafford, with Mourinho v Van Gaal. I expect Everton to overcome Burnley, but don't expect many goals, or an exciting game. Tottenham scored 5 in midweek in their Europa League clash at home to Greek side Asteras Tripolis, and can carry that on against a poor Newcastle defence, who are yet to win away from home in the league this season.

My double for Sunday's action would be Spurs and Everton TO WIN which is 2.02/1 on BET365

I’m unsure on the big game between United and Chelsea as yet, as for a result, with doubts on the main man Costa, and his back-up Remy. Although, the likes of Fabregas, Hazard, Schurrle, Oscar, and even an ageing Drogba, aren’t to be taken lightly, and with United’s current defending, it wouldn’t take much to get past them. 4/6 on both teams to score, again, looks a certainty, even without the Leagues joint-top scorer.

 

The Monday Night Football on Sky Sports sees QPR take on Aston Villa. Harry Redknapp’s men need to get last week’s defeat to Liverpool out of their minds quickly, and focus on another tough game against Villa. These are the games you need to be getting points from, and with a visit to Stamford Bridge and a home game against Manchester City to follow, there’s no better time.