Barclays Premier League | The Fight For Survival

The fight for survival in the Premier League really hots up as we enter into May, and the final 4 weeks of the season. There are 7 Premier League games on Saturday, starting with the early kick-off (12:45) and a huge game from the bottom of the table as Leicester host an out-of-form Newcastle. Could Newcastle really slip into the bottom 3 over the next few weeks!?
The 3pm games see Villa take on Everton at Villa Park, QPR travel to Anfield to play Liverpool, Southampton make a long trip to the North East to play Sunderland, Swansea host Stoke, and West Ham at home to Burnley. All this is topped off by the evening fixture as Manchester United look to get back on track against West Brom at Old Trafford.

The key games regarding the relegation battle come from the King Power Stadium with Leicester and Newcastle, Villa and a tough home game against a rejuvenated Everton, QPR taking their poor away record this season to Anfield, the Stadium of Light as Sunderland take on Europe-chasing Southampton, and Burnley's away trip to West Ham. It could be a very interesting day at the Bottom.

Hull City don't play until Monday (at home to Arsenal) and will have a chance to see how all 5 teams below them get on, on Saturday, but still can't drop in to the bottom 3 just yet.

Newcastle head to Leicester looking to avoid an 8th consecutive league defeat. The Magpies last away win in the league, came against Hull City in January, the only away league win in their last 11 (L8 D2).
Newcastle have lost the last 4 away game, without scoring a single goal, and conceding 11, though they were games against City, Everton and Liverpool amongst the derby at Sunderland. They've failed to score in 9 of their 17 away league games this season.

Of course, with Leicester, their fortunes have changed for the better, despite the midweek defeat to Chelsea, which they still put in a great effort, and led at half time.
Leicester are undefeated in their last 5 home games against the Magpies, in all competitions, and I can see that being extended, as I struggle to see a Newcastle victory here today.

Both teams will be desperate for the win, and it should provide a bit of entertainment to get the Saturday football underway. We may know a lot more, or a lot less regarding the relegation battle, come the end of the days games. 

PREDICTION - Leicester WIN 2-1

Friday's Horse Racing UK | Stats

Plenty of racing once again on Friday, and I'm going to take you through what the stats are telling us, and which selections to make from those stats, with a focus on the flat meetings from Chepstow and Musselburgh.


Chepstow

1:40 Jockey Pat Dobbs has a 32% strike-rate at Chepstow over the last few years, and is teamed up with trainer Ralph Beckett, who also has a good record here, with a 26% strike rate over the same period, and a 31% strike-rate on all runners here.
This combination has won 7 flat races from 23 over the last 5 years (30% SR), with a LSP of +£15.28 - £1 stakes.

Back AIR SQUADRON @ 9/2

Beckett also has PERRAULT in the 2:45 (6/4)


3:50 Danny Brock has 2 wins from 11 this season when riding for trainer Jonathan Portman, with a massive LSP of +£106.50 - £1 stakes. He stakes the ride of BUCKLEBERRY, who won on the all-weather last time out a month ago. 

Back BUCKLEBERRY @ 11/1


4:25 Trainer Malcolm Saunders is having a good season so far, and has been in good form over the last fortnight, with a 30% strike rate and an LSP of +£54.00 - £1 stakes
He has PIXELEEN and SPIRIT IN TIME in the 4:25 handicap.

Back PIXELEEN @ 16/1

        SPIRIT IN TIME @ 33/1


Musselburgh

2:55 FREDRIKA is 3 from 8 on the predicted 'going', and all 4 wins have come at this trip. Won by a head last time out, and should be right up there again here.

Back FREDRIKA @ 9/2


3:25 Trainer Philip Kirby has a very good 25% strike rate at this course over the last few years (15 wins from 60 runners) - LSP +£46.56 - £1 stakes
Joe Fanning takes the mount of ROCKY TWO, who is a course winner over 13f
The Kirby/Fanning partnership has a 19% strike-rate over the last 5 seasons - 3 wins from 16 - 2 of those wins in last season in 2014

Back ROCKY TWO @ 15/2


4:00 and 4:35 Trainer David O'Meara has been in fine form over the last fortnight with a 24% strike rate (LSP +£18.77), and has a 19% strike rate at Musselburgh over the last 5 seasons. He, and jockey Tudhope combine for 3 rides at Musselburgh on Friday.
Tudhope also been in good form with a 21% strike rate with 7 wins in the last 33 runs. 

Back REGAL DAN & TAKAFOL @ 7/2



And finally, just a quick mention of the Punchestown Festival in Ireland, with just 2 days left now.

Willie Mullins heads into the fourth day with 10 winners so far in the festival, from 43 runners (23% SR), with 6 of those wins in Grade 1 races. A further 8 have placed, either second or third. 

Once again, the trainer takes another lorry load of horses, and it'll be interesting to see how many more winners he'll get, and how many he'll finish with come the end of the festival on Saturday. 


BEST BETS FOR DAY 4

4:20 BISHOPS ROAD (EW) 14/1

4:55 BURN AND TURN 5/1

6:40 ALTON BAY (EW) 13/2

Free Horse Racing Tips - Fontwell Tips

Fontwell Tips

4:30 Richard Johnston and Philip Hobbs in fine form of late, and both had a good record at this course over the last 5 seasons, though not as impressive as Nicky Henderson (38% SR from 34 runners). SANDYGATE shaped well on hurdles debut, and has every chance here, and should definitely improve on his 4th at Ludlow, up in trip to 2m4f.

SANDYGATE 7/2



Danger; Towering (11/2) - Hurdles debut. Trainer Nicky Henderson has a great record at this course over recent seasons, and in 2014-15 season, Henderson boasted an impressive 54% strike-rate in Maidens (28 wins from 52) - 51% in Maiden Hurdles (21 wins from 41). When teamed with McGrath in 14-15 they won 7 hurdles from 21 (31% SR).


5:05 BERTIE'S DESIRE returns after 174 days off the track. Ran well in 2014 with 2 wins and 3 second place finishes from his 5 runs. Step up to 2m6f for first time could well be the answer for Sherwood and Aspell partnership, which saw a 27% strike-rate in chases (2014-15) - 15 wins from 56.

BERTIE'S DESIRE 7/2 

Midweek Premier League Football | Leicester v Chelsea | Stats

Only 25 minutes left until kick-off now, and Chelsea can edge closer to their fourth Premier League title if they can beat off the in-form Foxes, who are looking for their fifth consecutive league win, which would move them 4 points clear of the relegation zone; an incredible feat considering the position they were in earlier in the year. 

It should be an entertaining game, even if Chelsea try to prevent that! Leicester will be full of confidence, and will do their best to provide the entertainment in front of the home crowd, and are fighting for their lives in the Premier League. 


STATS

- There have been just eight goals scored in Leicester’s last six Premier League home matches (five of them for Leicester).

- Whilst in charge, Jose Mourinho has seen his Chelsea side keep a clean sheet in 103 of his 191 Premier League games (54%). 

The Blues have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches in the League.

- Chelsea’s Premier League unbeaten run now stands at 13 games (W9 D4) since their defeat to rivals Spurs on New Year’s Day.

- Chelsea have won their last 7 matches against Leicester in all competitions, and have scored at least 2 goals in their last 7 matches against Leicester, again in all competitions.

Premier League Football - Relegation Talk

On a day where Steve Bruce said Hull City needed to defend for their lives against Liverpool, they did just that, as the reds were left frustrated throughout, having dominated possession (69%), but once again, failing to find the net, from 12 efforts at goal (9 on target). It was Michael Dawson's first ever Hull City goal, in the 37th minute, which ensured the 1-0 victory for the tigers, which comes at the most crucial time for them, and now makes it back-to-back league wins, and clean sheets, after their 2-0 victory against Palace at the weekend, and moves them 4 points clear of the relegation zone. 

It's still going to be a tough few weeks for Hull, who face Arsenal, Burnley, Spurs and Manchester United for their remaining 4 fixtures, although 3 of the 4 are in front of their own fans, at the KC Stadium.


The one team that has continued to slide, and you have to fear for, is Newcastle United, who have now lost 7 league games in a row, after the most recent defeat at home to Swansea, and have only won 2 of their last 15 league games.

John Carvers side has remaining games at home to West Brom and West Ham, and away games at Leicester and QPR. They will be tough games, to say the least, and at the moment, you can't see Newcastle getting ANY points from those games. 


Leicester City, on the other hand, have surprised everyone over the last couple of weeks, and have notched four straight league wins, having failed to win since January in the League (8 games), when beating Villa 1-0 at home (L6 D2). It was another vital 3 points on Saturday, as they beat relegation rivals Burnley, 1-0 at Turf Moor.
Leicester feature in the second Barclays Premier League game of the midweek, as they face inevitable-champions Chelsea (or should that be 'Boring-Boring Chelsea') on Wednesday, at the King Power Stadium.
Leicester haven't managed five successive top-flight wins since January 1964!

After Wednesday's game, Leicester will have remaining home fixtures against Newcastle and Southampton, before travelling to the North East to take on Sunderland, and then their final game at home to QPR on the last day of the season.



QPR are another team with plenty to do in their final fixtures, if they want to survive the Premier League for another season, and I don't give them much chance to be honest. They've managed just 1 win in the last 9 league games, and just 2 wins in 17 league games. 
Three of Rangers' final 4 games come away from home, and they do have the worst away record in the Premier League, with just 2 wins and 13 defeats in 16 away games, scoring 17 goals, and conceding 36!

QPR have away trips to Anfield and then the Etihad, before a home game against Newcastle, and finally away to Leicester on the last day of the season, in what could potentially be, a very interesting game come the day!


My relegation 3 has changed from the other week, but I'm still undecided. Leicester may well have saved themselves, from what looked like inevitable relegation.
Burnley have been very poor of late, and haven't found the back of the net in their last 5 league games, since beating Manchester City 1-0 at Turf Moor, and have managed just 3 goals in the last 10 league games. 

It's now Burnley and QPR I fear for most, and that final relegation spot is open to any one from Sunderland to Newcastle, with some huge battles to come from the foot of the table in the next 4 weeks. 

Horse Racing UK - Ascot Free Tips

There's another day full of racing on Wednesday across the UK, with meetings at Ascot, Cheltenham, Lingfield (AW), Ponterfact and Wolverhampton (AW), as well as day 2 of the Punchestown Festival over in Ireland. Light rain/showers are predicted across all the cards.

Day 1 of Punchestown ensured Williw Mullins got off to a great start, as he hit a Grade 1-winning treble, with Douvan winning the Grade 1 Novices' Hurdle, Felix Yonger winning the Grade 1 Champion Chase and Valseur Lido taking the Grade 1 Champion Novices' Chase.

Below I've done a list of my best bets for Wednesday's Ascot meeting...........And don't forget to check out the FREE BETS page <<<<<<< on the left....for all the latest betting offers.


ASCOT

2:25 - GIFTED MASTER             6/4 StanJames

3:00 - MONTALCINO                 3/1 Bet365

3:30 - TAC DE BOISTRON          9/2 Paddy Power 

4:05 - LIMATO                         6/4 Paddy Power

4:35 - MONDIALISTE                2/1 Bet365

5:10 - EXCHEQUER                  6/1 Bet365
          DUELLING DRAGON       6/1 Bet365

Tuesday's Market Movers

POSITIVES

Brighton

3:25 NIMBLE KIMBLE     6/1 > 10/3

5:05 PERFECT PASTIME 6/1 > 7/2

Wolverhampton (AW)

2:35 FAST DANCER       1/1 > 7/10

4:05 BALTIC BRAVE      7/1 > 9/2

Nottingham

3:45 MR BISSTO           7/1 > 9/2



NEGATIVES

Brighton

2:25 JONNIE SKULL       5/1 > 15/2

5:05 EMILY DAVISON     9/2 > 7/1

Wolverhampton

2:35 RAHMAH           1.37/1 > 2/1

3:35 REPECHAGE         11/2 > 9/1

Nottingham

2:15 LADY PINNACLE    7/2 > 11/2

2:45 CELTIC SIXPENCE 7/2 > 6/1

4:50 STAR FIRE            2/1 > 11/4

Horse Racing Stats – Tuesday’s Cards

After all the sunshine we’ve had over the last week, it’s finally starting to turn across the country, with heavy showers expected at many of the race meetings today.

There are 5 meetings across the UK, and the start of Punchestown over in Ireland, where weather is predicted as cloudy at the moment.

I’m going to focus on stats for the afternoon meeting from Nottingham for this post;

NOTTINGHAM

When teaming up, Liam Jones and trainer Alan Coogan have a 60% strike rate. Coogan sends out RALPH MCTELL (2:15) who is currently 33/1. **NOW 100/1 BP

Jockey Joe Doyle is in good form of late, with a 31% strike rate over the last 2 weeks. He is also boasting a Level Stake Profit of +£83.75 this season (£1 stakes). Doyle takes the ride of ARTFUL PRINCE (2:45), who is a course-winner, and was beaten favourite last time out – Currently 7/1

Trainer David Elsworth has an impressive LSP of +£68.25 (£1 stakes), at Nottingham over the last few seasons, with a 21% strike rate.

Elsworths’ best form comes in handicaps, and especially 4yo+ handicaps, with a 31% strike rate, and 33% strike rate respectively, in 2015.

He sends out 3 runners to Nottingham;

2:45        DERULO                            10/1

              WATER DANCER               16/1 Non-Runner

3:45        DANSILI DASH                 12/1

Jockey, William Twiston-Davies has a strike rate of 75% when riding for owner Planetoid Partnership. The big negative is the fact William Twiston-Davies hasn’t won at this course in the last 5 seasons, from 22 rides. 

Twiston-Davies takes the ride of PLANETOID for trainer Jim Best in the 4:15 handicap, and is currently best priced 15/2.

Hull v Liverpool - A Scrappy Encounter?

Hull City v Liverpool Preview

There’s two midweek Barclays Premier League games this week, with Hull City and Liverpool on Tuesday, and Leicester City v Chelsea on the Wednesday. So, first up, the battle from the KC Stadium, where Liverpool travel to Hull, with both teams scrapping for their desired league position; Hull fighting relegation, and Liverpool trying to secure that Champions League spot, ahead of United, Arsenal and City.

Hull’s chances of staying up were boosted of course over the weekend, with their first league win in seven, courtesy of N’Doye’s brace. Hull City edged the majority of possession in the game, and had 21 shots at goal (7 on target) in total, compared to Palaces 7 (3 on target).

Hull City have won just one of the seven Barclays Premier League matches against Liverpool (W1 D3 L3), and have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 against the reds.

Hull haven’t kept consecutive clean sheets in the Premier League since 2013, and haven’t won back-to-back league games since February, when beating Villa, then QPR, both at the KC.

Despite a total of 74% possession away to West Brom, once again like a few times this season, Liverpool failed to take their chances, and managed just 5 shots on target from 22 shots at goal. 

Liverpool’s spending and transfers not good enough once again, especially up-front, when needing to replace Suarez;

Lambert – Decent player, very good in the air. The fact it was his dream club, and he was stacking shelves a few years ago, it was a ‘fairy tale’ transfer more than anything, which hasn’t paid off.

Ballotelli – What words can you use to describe this man…..There’s no doubt he has technical ability. If the signing pulls off; he settles and is banging in the goals, then it’s an absolute bargain for £16 million, but is the biggest risk in World football.

Borini – If memory serves me correctly, this player wanted to re-join Sunderland (on loan, or make a permanent move), but Rogers and Liverpool told him he couldn’t go, and should fight for his first team place. And he’s hardly stepped foot on a football pitch all season!
**Turns out I was mistaken about Borini, and it was him who wouldn't go, and wanted to fight for his place. I wonder if money influenced the decision......

And this is all after the £30+ million signing of Andy Carroll, what a fiasco that was!

And it was confirmed today that Sturridge may not feature again this season, as he struggles to shake off a hip problem. Sturridge has made just 12 starts in 2014/15, and is now out with his 15^th injury since joining Liverpool in January 2013.

Liverpool travel to Hull with just 8 wins from their 16 league games, away from home, so far this season, and with Hull’s confidence high after their weekend result, it will surely be a tough night for the reds. I can picture a scrappy encounter, with plenty of missed chances, and probably points shared, with both teams scoring. 

Free Horse Racing Tips - Monday

A new week, and another great day for racing as the sun continues to shine around the country.......it'll never last! Enjoy it now!

The greatest jockey, if not sportsman, of all time, A P McCoy had his final rides before retirement, in front of a full house at Sandown on Saturday, but unfortunately couldn't end his magnificent career with a win, as he finished 3rd on both Mr Mole, and Box Office. And I think we can all agree people definitely got carried away with the A P factor, as Box Office was never a 5/2 favourite.
The commitment and dedication, just to get that chance to ride another winner, even if it cost him more in travel expenses, was just phenomenal, not to mention the time away from the family and training involced. He may well be retiring as a jockey, but this man will be around the sport of horse racing for the rest of his life, and will be remembered by all, as the greatest of all time.


But, as with everything in life, we must go on, and there's plenty to be getting on with, and below is the free horse racing tips for Monday's evening meetings;


WINDSOR LUCKY 15 (1)

5:30 - SHANGHAI GLORY 11/4

6:00 - GOSSIPING 7/4

6:30 - WONDER LAISH 4/6

7:30 - LIGHT OF ASIA 2/1

£1 STAKES (£15 TOTAL) RETURNS £189


EACH-WAY DOUBLE

WIN 7:00 UNISON (6/1)

WOL 6:50 LADY ATLAS (7/2)

£5 EACH-WAY RETURNS £176.20


Good luck with your bets today, and check back later, for stats and additional tips for this evenings racing.