Barclays Premier League Predictions - 28/12/2014

Good morning all, just a quick post with a few correct scores for the Barclays Premier League action today.


QPR v Crystal Palace      2-1        9/1

Villa v Sunderland          1-1      11/2

Hull v Leicester              2-1      10/1

Man City v Burnley         3-0       6/1

Stoke v West Brom        2-1      17/2

Spurs v Man United        1-2       9/1

S'hampton v Chelsea      1-2      17/2

KING GEORGE VI CHASE - BOXING DAY

Boxing Day is a great day for the racing-lovers, as we see 12 meetings across UK and Ireland, with the Christmas Hurdle and King George VI Chase the highlights from Kempton.

So, as promised, I have a few stats for Boxing Day’s racing from Kempton, and I’ll get straight to them. Best Bet at the end of the blog;

KEMPTON

TOP JOCKEYS (Course) – WINS/RUNS & STRIKE-RATE (%)

Barry Geraghty                   40/126                    32%

Daryl Jacob                         16/73                     22%

A P McCoy                           16/87                     18%

Ruby Walsh                         10/42                     24%

Nick Schofield                      9/54                       17%

TOP JOCKEYS – RECENT FORM – WINS/RUNS & STRIKE-RATE (%)

Ruby Walsh                         5/15                       33%

A P McCoy                          11/39                      28%

Barry Geraghty                    6/22                       27%

Nico de Boinville                  3/10                       30%

Daryl Jacob                         5/22                       23%

Tom Bellamy                       4/13                       31%

TOP TRAINERS (Course) – WINS/RUNS & STRIKE-RATE (%)

Nicky Henderson                 54/178                    30%

Paul Nicholls                       26/121                    21%

Harry Fry                             5/12                       42%

John Ferguson                     4/18                        22%

Mick Channon                     3/10                         30%

Barclays Premier League Precitions - Boxing Day

Well Christmas is nearly over for another year, and it’s back to the beloved sports action, and Friday may be the day my TV explodes through channel hopping, as we have a full Premier League fixture list, and 12 meetings across UK and Ireland for the racing enthusiasts, including the Grade 1 William Hill King George VI Chase………..These are the days I live for!

I’ll go through a few key stats, predictions and best tips for both the racing and Barclays Premier League games. The horse racing stats and tips will follow in a separate post.

The early kick-off on Boxing Day (12:45) comes from Stamford Bridge as Chelsea host West Ham, and look to maintain their perfect record at home, and make it 9 wins from 9 in the league this season.  West Ham will be looking to make it 5 wins from their last 6 in the league, and can head into the game full of confidence after their impressive start to the season. It should be an entertaining and attacking game, with plenty of action, but we’ll see.

Chelsea have only conceded 2 goals in their last 6 league games, and just 3 in 8 at Stamford Bridge, where they’ve also scored 20 goals (average 2.5 per game), but I can see Downing, Sakho and Carroll causing plenty of problems.

PREDICTION

Both Teams To Score & OVER 2.5 goals – 13/10

Correct Score – Chelsea Win 2-1 – 15/2

Southampton travel to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace, in 1 of 8 15:00pm kick-offs, and the visitors will hope they’ve got their season back on track after a 3-0 victory over Everton last week. The Saints’ away form has been less superior than their home form, and have only scored 7 goals away from home in the league, compared to 21 at home, although that includes the 8 scored in one game, against Sunderland. Both teams have similar form over the last 6 league games, with just the one win each in those games, and it’s a difficult one to call. I can’t see Palace winning to be honest, and I can see a low scoring game, either Southampton 1-0 or 1-1 draw.

PREDICTION

Correct Score – DRAW 1-1 – 11/2

Newcastle travel to Old Trafford after their derby loss to Sunderland last time out, and will be looking to avoid defeat for the third successive league game here. Louis Van Gaal was disappointed after United’s 1-1 draw with ten-man Villa, with the Red Devils failing to take advantage, and will be hoping for a better end product and class of finishing at home to Newcastle.

Manchester United’s home form has been good, with just 1 defeat in 9 (against Swansea on the opening weekend), scoring 19 and conceding 6. They’re looking to make it 5 consecutive home wins in the league. I can see them winning this one and continuing their unbeaten run.

PREDICTION

Barclays Premier League - Tyne-Wear Derby

You can't beat a good old derby match between two sides with genuine hate for each other, and Sunday we have it, with the Magpies against the Black Cats in the Tyne-Wear Derby. It's difficult to split the sides at the moment.

Newcastle have a long injury list with Sissoko the latest, but should have Cheick Tiote, Sammy Ameobi, Steven Taylor and Papiss Cisse available. 3^rd choice ‘keeper Alnwick has been passed fit after injuring his shoulder in mid-week.

Sunderland have drawn 10 of their 16 league games so far this season and I can see this one going the same way. Neither team will want to lose, for obvious reasons. The Black Cats have drawn 5 of their last 6 league games, either ending 0-0 or 1-1 (with the 4-1 defeat to City in between).

 

KEY STATS

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Sunderland's last 6 games in the Premier League.

Sunderland are unbeaten in their last five Barclays Premier League games against Newcastle United (W3 D2), winning the last three in a row.

There have been five red cards in the last eight Premier League meetings between these two sides, though none in the last three. Anthony Taylor is the referee for this one, and he has given 56 yellow cards in 14 games (average of 4 per game), with just one red produced.

Newcastle have been leading at half-time in just one of their 16 Premier League games this season.

 

VERDICT & TIPS

SUN v NEW - DRAW    -    12/5 (BET365)        1-1     11/2 (BET365)

 

Barclays Premier League – Saturday 20/12/2014 Preview, Stats & Tips

The early kick off on Saturday comes from the Etihad, as Manchester City take on Crystal Palace, and look to make it 6 consecutive league wins.

Crystal Palace have won just one away game in the league so far this season, which came against Everton in September, and Neil Warnock’s men haven’t won in the last 4 games, after beating Liverpool 3-1, and they’ve scored just 2 goals in those games since.

As mentioned, City are looking to make it 6 wins from 6 in the league. With all the doubts to the attacking line, it could be a long afternoon for both sides. Pellegrini’s men have won their last 2 league games 1-0, against Everton and Leicester, and clearly miss Aguero, but the return of David Silva is a huge positive.

KEY STATS

Crystal Palace haven’t won away at City since 1990

City have won 22 of their last 26 games at home in the league

City have scored in 13 successive league matches

City have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches against Palace in all competitions

City have been winning at both half time and full time in their last 3 matches in the Premier League

 

VERDICT & TIPS

This will surely go to City, I just can’t see Palace getting anything. It’s a tough one to call regards to the correct score. If Kompany’s out, and you have Mangala and Demichelis, Palace can cause them two problems. And with Aguero, Dzeko and Jovetic all out, goals may lack for City.

MAN CITY WIN (1.29 – BET365) – 2-0 (6/1 –BET365)

 

West Ham are looking to make it 4 wins in their last 5 league games, as they host a struggling Leicester City. Leicester sit bottom of the table with no wins in the last 11 games, since beating United 5-3. They’ve managed just 6 goals in those 11 games, and you can’t see it getting any better for them.

 

KEY STATS

West Ham have lost just 4 of their last 16 Barclays Premier League matches

Leicester have not won any of their last 17 top flight away trips to London (D3 L14) and have conceded at least two goals in each of their last eight trips to the capital.

Leicester have lost their last 6 away matches in the Premier League.

Leicester have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 away matches in the Premier League.

West Ham are undefeated in their last 6 matches against Leicester in all competitions.

 

Is Steve Bruce Fighting To Keep His Job?

Steve Bruce has had a successful time as Hull City manager, having taken the job in the summer of 2012, first guiding them to the Premier League at the first time of asking, and then keeping them up in the top flight last season.

But, it seems to be heading down hill, as another defeat this weekend, although against a team unbeaten at home in leaders Chelsea, sees Hull in 19th, with just 2 wins from 16 games in the league. Hull haven't won since beating Crystal Palace at home on the 4th October, with 5 losses and 4 draws since. Their only other win in the league came against QPR away on the opening weekend of the season. They've also only scored 2 goals in their last 8 premier league games, and the decision to let Shane Long go, was a strange one for me in the first place. Abel Hernandez is back, but hasn't scored since returning from the birth of his child. I like Hernandez, and do believe him to be a quality goal scorer, but sometimes, players can take time to settle, and show their true abilities.

Barclays Premier League – 13-15/12/2014

There’s seven Barclays Premier League fixtures on Saturday, including the clash between Arsenal and Newcastle later in the evening. Before the clash of the weekend on Sunday, as in-form United host struggling Liverpool, and after that, to the Liberty Stadium for Swansea against Tottenham. Monday night football sees QPR travel to Goodison.

I’m going to look at a couple of games, provide some stats, and give some predictions, and hopefully find a few winning bets for all;

 

BURNLEY V SOUTHAMPTON

Southampton haven’t won in the League since beating Leicester at the beginning of November, and have lost their last 3, although Southampton will feel very disappointed not to have got something from both the Arsenal, and United game. Having said this, the Saints still have the best defensive record in the league, conceding 12 from 15. And Burnley are joint lowest goal scorers in the league (with Villa), with just 10 goals in 15 games.

Burnley have only won 1 of 8 league games at Turf Moor this season, and scored just 6 goals, and conceded 11 in them games. Burnley have only scored more than once in a game this season, on two occasions, and both of them, away from home, against Stoke and Leicester.

Burnley have conceded the most headed goals, with 9 this season, and when you see how good Pelle is in the air, you can imagine he’ll be getting on the score sheet.

Southampton are unbeaten in their last four games against Burnley in all competitions, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and have lost just one of their last six away games at Turf Moor (W2 D3 L1).

Mark Clattenberg takes charge of this game, and he has given the second highest amount of yellow cards in the league this season, with 83 in 18 games, an average of 4.6 per game, with 2 red cards shown.

VERDICT; It’s a tough one to call really, with Southampton near the top, and Burnley near the bottom, but Burnley above Southampton in the form table. The Saints will definitely want to get back on track here, but Burnley won’t just lay down.

Under 2.5 goals – 4/6 (Paddy Power)

Over 30 points – Card Index – 8/13 (Paddy Power)

Friday's Cheltenham Tips - Horse Racing UK

There's a very good days racing this Friday, so I thought I'd post a couple of tips before my Premier League post goes live for this weekends fixtures. There's action from Cheltenham, Bangor, Doncaster, and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton, and over in Dundalk, Ireland, in the evening.

Cheltenham sees the reappearance of Nicky Henderson-trained Hadrian's Approach, in the Grade 3 Handicap Chase. He was last seen at Sandown in April, when winning the Bet365 Gold Cup Chase. The 7-year old Bay Gelding, by High Chaparral, is set to take on 9 opponents, including in-form The Ould Lad, Paul Nicholls-trained Cowards Close and in-form veteran Charingworth.

As mentioned, I do have a couple of tips, so here they are;

Cheltenham       12:30

KINGS PALACE  4/5 (BetVictor)

Kings Palace gets the vote. Enjoys the course, winning 3 from 4 here, and also 3 from 4 on Good ground. 1 from 1 at the distance, when beating favourite, Creepy (2nd) and Monbeg Dude(3rd)here 14 months ago. Beat off Sausalito Sunrise last time out mid-November. Jockey, Scudamore has a 27% strike rate in Novice Chases this season, and 35% strike rate when teamed up with David Pipe in chases this season.

Cheltenham       13:40

VINTAGE VINNIE   4/1 (Paddy Power)

I've pondered for quite some time on this one, before coming to a decision on Vintage Vinnie. Has finished 3rd on both hurdles starts to date, over 20f, and the step down in trip could be ideal. Trainer Rebecca Curtis has a 40% strike rate in handicap hurdles this season.

Cheltenham       14:10

COWARDS CLOSE   5/1 (Coral)

Since the start of November 2014 Paul Nicholls has won 2x Grade 3, 2x Grade 2 and 5x Grade 1 races, including the Betfair Chase and the Tingle Creek Chase. He has Cowards Close in this Grade 3, and in the form Nicholls is in of late, and in the big races, the gelding by Presenting can't be ruled out, and has every chance of progressing. When teamed together this season, Nicholls and Twiston-Davies have a 28% strike rate in chases.

 

OTHER TIPS

Chelt 14:40 - Duke of Lucca      13/2

Chelt 15:15 - Big Easy              11/4

Wolv 18:30 - Lord of the Storm 11/4


Best of luck, and enjoy the racing

Barclays Premier League - Monday Night Football - Southampton v Manchester United

Monday Night Football see's Southampton take on Manchester United in the Barclays Premier League.
 

 

The Saints have struggled in their recent games, after a blistering start to the season.

United are looking to make it 5 wins on the bounce and move into 3rd place, but their away form has been far from convincing, with just 1 win in 6 this season, their last away game, against Arsenal.

Southampton have only conceded 4 goals in 7 home games, scoring 17, but Pelle has been struggling of late, having not scored since the empthatic 8-0 thrashing of Sunderland, mid-October. I really can't see United losing this game, despite a rocky away form, but an outright win would be tough, even though Southampton have a few key names missing. Wayne Rooney has scored 5 goals in 5 starts against Southampton in the League, and if he starts here looks a good bet for ANYTIME GOAL SCORER @2/1 BET365

 

Sports Saturday – Best Bets

It’s another Saturday full of top class horse racing and Premier League football, and that’s just the way I like it. We have Newcastle v Chelsea in the early kick off as the blues look to extend their unbeaten league record to 15 games this season. And in the racing we have plenty of quality on show, including the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 and Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 from Aintree and the Racing Post Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 and 888Sport Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 from Sandown.

Plenty to get through, so I’ll get started straight away, first with the Barclays Premier League games;

Newcastle v Chelsea – CHELSEA WIN 4/7 (Paddy Power) – Score; 1-2      7/1 (Paddy Power)

Chelsea are certainly looking like they'll be champions come the end of the season, and remain unbeaten in the league with 11 wins and 3 draws.

Newcastle have only lost 1 game at home, which was against City on the opening weekend. They have drawn with Hull and Palace, and beaten Liverpool, QPR and Leicester, so another big test will prove too much I think. In defence Newcastle have been fairly sound, and only conceded 3 in their last 6 league games.

Having said that, Chelsea average over 2 goals a game away from home in the League this season, and they've scored 10 goals in their last 6 league games (conceding just 3). 2-1 Chelsea win for me.

 

QPR v Burnley – QPR WIN & Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 4.33 (BET365)

QPR failed to score against Swansea away in midweek, but had been finding the net a little before that, with Austin the main man. Swansea's defence is also very good at home, and QPR's away form is the worst.

QPR beat Leicester 3-2 at home recently and I can see a similar score line against Burnley, either 3-2 or 3-1 QPR.

Burnley have only scored 4 away goals but managed 2 in their last away game at Stoke, and Danny Ings looks like he's finding his feet a bit in the Premier League now.

 

Hull City v West Brom – HULL WIN 29/20 (BET365)

Both these sides have been on poor run of form, but Hull managed a draw against Everton in midweek and they'll hope that's a turning point in their season. They did lose Diame in that game through injury but have the return of strike Abel Hernandez.

West Brom have skipper Chris Brunt on the side lines with a hamstring injury, and with Berahino now 436 minutes without a Premier League goal, it’s not looking good. West Brom have scored just 5 goals in their last 11 Premier League games on the road, and never more than once in those games.

 

And that’s it for Saturday’s football bets. I do have a couple more in mind, and you can find me on OLBG to see all my tips, my username is kingman55.

 

And now a quick look at a couple of my racing picks for today;

Sandown 12:50 – Blue Buttons 3/1 (William Hill)

Harry Fry in fine form at the moment, and has a 38% strike rate in Handicap hurdles so far this season. Trainer and Jockey combination shows a 33% strike rate in hurdles this season with 6 wins from 18.

 

Aintree 1:30 – Mendip Express (EW) 10/1 (BET365)

Mendip Express is 2 from 2 on the current going (soft) and 1 from 1 at the distance. Again, trainer Harry Fry is in fine form at the moment with 5 wins from 13 in the last fortnight (38% strike rate).