Positive Market Movers
Bangor
6:25 Mor Brook 4/1 > 11/4
7:30 Tekthelot 11/4 > 2/1
Helium 14/1 > 13/2
Chepstow
2:10 Mambo Rhythm 7/1 > 5/1
3:15 Secret Millionaire 12/1 > 8/1
Fontwell
4:30 Stars Royale 11/1 > 7/1
5:40 Watt Broderick 8/1 > 9/2
6:50 The Selector 10/1 > 7/1
Lingfield (AW)
2:30 Berkeley Vale 16/1 > 11/1
4:10 Journey 7/2 > 5/2
Musselburgh
2:55 Soul Brother 8/1 > 5/1
4:00 Lazarus Bell 16/1 > 7/1
4:35 Atreus 12/1 > 13/2
Punchestown (IRE)
4:55 Indian Fairy 14/1 > 10/1
7:10 Avichi 10/1 > 6/1
Regal Empress 26/1 > 16/1
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Friday 1 May 2015
Barclays Premier League | The Fight For Survival
The fight for survival in the Premier League really hots up as we enter into May, and the final 4 weeks of the season. There are 7 Premier League games on Saturday, starting with the early kick-off (12:45) and a huge game from the bottom of the table as Leicester host an out-of-form Newcastle. Could Newcastle really slip into the bottom 3 over the next few weeks!?
The 3pm games see Villa take on Everton at Villa Park, QPR travel to Anfield to play Liverpool, Southampton make a long trip to the North East to play Sunderland, Swansea host Stoke, and West Ham at home to Burnley. All this is topped off by the evening fixture as Manchester United look to get back on track against West Brom at Old Trafford.
The key games regarding the relegation battle come from the King Power Stadium with Leicester and Newcastle, Villa and a tough home game against a rejuvenated Everton, QPR taking their poor away record this season to Anfield, the Stadium of Light as Sunderland take on Europe-chasing Southampton, and Burnley's away trip to West Ham. It could be a very interesting day at the Bottom.
Hull City don't play until Monday (at home to Arsenal) and will have a chance to see how all 5 teams below them get on, on Saturday, but still can't drop in to the bottom 3 just yet.
Newcastle head to Leicester looking to avoid an 8th consecutive league defeat. The Magpies last away win in the league, came against Hull City in January, the only away league win in their last 11 (L8 D2).
Newcastle have lost the last 4 away game, without scoring a single goal, and conceding 11, though they were games against City, Everton and Liverpool amongst the derby at Sunderland. They've failed to score in 9 of their 17 away league games this season.
Of course, with Leicester, their fortunes have changed for the better, despite the midweek defeat to Chelsea, which they still put in a great effort, and led at half time.
Leicester are undefeated in their last 5 home games against the Magpies, in all competitions, and I can see that being extended, as I struggle to see a Newcastle victory here today.
Both teams will be desperate for the win, and it should provide a bit of entertainment to get the Saturday football underway. We may know a lot more, or a lot less regarding the relegation battle, come the end of the days games.
PREDICTION - Leicester WIN 2-1
The 3pm games see Villa take on Everton at Villa Park, QPR travel to Anfield to play Liverpool, Southampton make a long trip to the North East to play Sunderland, Swansea host Stoke, and West Ham at home to Burnley. All this is topped off by the evening fixture as Manchester United look to get back on track against West Brom at Old Trafford.
The key games regarding the relegation battle come from the King Power Stadium with Leicester and Newcastle, Villa and a tough home game against a rejuvenated Everton, QPR taking their poor away record this season to Anfield, the Stadium of Light as Sunderland take on Europe-chasing Southampton, and Burnley's away trip to West Ham. It could be a very interesting day at the Bottom.
Hull City don't play until Monday (at home to Arsenal) and will have a chance to see how all 5 teams below them get on, on Saturday, but still can't drop in to the bottom 3 just yet.
Newcastle head to Leicester looking to avoid an 8th consecutive league defeat. The Magpies last away win in the league, came against Hull City in January, the only away league win in their last 11 (L8 D2).
Newcastle have lost the last 4 away game, without scoring a single goal, and conceding 11, though they were games against City, Everton and Liverpool amongst the derby at Sunderland. They've failed to score in 9 of their 17 away league games this season.
Of course, with Leicester, their fortunes have changed for the better, despite the midweek defeat to Chelsea, which they still put in a great effort, and led at half time.
Leicester are undefeated in their last 5 home games against the Magpies, in all competitions, and I can see that being extended, as I struggle to see a Newcastle victory here today.
Both teams will be desperate for the win, and it should provide a bit of entertainment to get the Saturday football underway. We may know a lot more, or a lot less regarding the relegation battle, come the end of the days games.
PREDICTION - Leicester WIN 2-1
Friday's Horse Racing UK | Stats
Plenty of racing once again on Friday, and I'm going to take you through what the stats are telling us, and which selections to make from those stats, with a focus on the flat meetings from Chepstow and Musselburgh.
Chepstow
1:40 Jockey Pat Dobbs has a 32% strike-rate at Chepstow over the last few years, and is teamed up with trainer Ralph Beckett, who also has a good record here, with a 26% strike rate over the same period, and a 31% strike-rate on all runners here.
This combination has won 7 flat races from 23 over the last 5 years (30% SR), with a LSP of +£15.28 - £1 stakes.
Back AIR SQUADRON @ 9/2
Beckett also has PERRAULT in the 2:45 (6/4)
3:50 Danny Brock has 2 wins from 11 this season when riding for trainer Jonathan Portman, with a massive LSP of +£106.50 - £1 stakes. He stakes the ride of BUCKLEBERRY, who won on the all-weather last time out a month ago.
Back BUCKLEBERRY @ 11/1
4:25 Trainer Malcolm Saunders is having a good season so far, and has been in good form over the last fortnight, with a 30% strike rate and an LSP of +£54.00 - £1 stakes
He has PIXELEEN and SPIRIT IN TIME in the 4:25 handicap.
Back PIXELEEN @ 16/1
SPIRIT IN TIME @ 33/1
Musselburgh
2:55 FREDRIKA is 3 from 8 on the predicted 'going', and all 4 wins have come at this trip. Won by a head last time out, and should be right up there again here.
Back FREDRIKA @ 9/2
3:25 Trainer Philip Kirby has a very good 25% strike rate at this course over the last few years (15 wins from 60 runners) - LSP +£46.56 - £1 stakes
Joe Fanning takes the mount of ROCKY TWO, who is a course winner over 13f
The Kirby/Fanning partnership has a 19% strike-rate over the last 5 seasons - 3 wins from 16 - 2 of those wins in last season in 2014
Back ROCKY TWO @ 15/2
4:00 and 4:35 Trainer David O'Meara has been in fine form over the last fortnight with a 24% strike rate (LSP +£18.77), and has a 19% strike rate at Musselburgh over the last 5 seasons. He, and jockey Tudhope combine for 3 rides at Musselburgh on Friday.
Tudhope also been in good form with a 21% strike rate with 7 wins in the last 33 runs.
Back REGAL DAN & TAKAFOL @ 7/2
And finally, just a quick mention of the Punchestown Festival in Ireland, with just 2 days left now.
Willie Mullins heads into the fourth day with 10 winners so far in the festival, from 43 runners (23% SR), with 6 of those wins in Grade 1 races. A further 8 have placed, either second or third.
Once again, the trainer takes another lorry load of horses, and it'll be interesting to see how many more winners he'll get, and how many he'll finish with come the end of the festival on Saturday.
BEST BETS FOR DAY 4
4:20 BISHOPS ROAD (EW) 14/1
4:55 BURN AND TURN 5/1
6:40 ALTON BAY (EW) 13/2
Chepstow
1:40 Jockey Pat Dobbs has a 32% strike-rate at Chepstow over the last few years, and is teamed up with trainer Ralph Beckett, who also has a good record here, with a 26% strike rate over the same period, and a 31% strike-rate on all runners here.
This combination has won 7 flat races from 23 over the last 5 years (30% SR), with a LSP of +£15.28 - £1 stakes.
Back AIR SQUADRON @ 9/2
Beckett also has PERRAULT in the 2:45 (6/4)
3:50 Danny Brock has 2 wins from 11 this season when riding for trainer Jonathan Portman, with a massive LSP of +£106.50 - £1 stakes. He stakes the ride of BUCKLEBERRY, who won on the all-weather last time out a month ago.
Back BUCKLEBERRY @ 11/1
4:25 Trainer Malcolm Saunders is having a good season so far, and has been in good form over the last fortnight, with a 30% strike rate and an LSP of +£54.00 - £1 stakes
He has PIXELEEN and SPIRIT IN TIME in the 4:25 handicap.
Back PIXELEEN @ 16/1
SPIRIT IN TIME @ 33/1
Musselburgh
2:55 FREDRIKA is 3 from 8 on the predicted 'going', and all 4 wins have come at this trip. Won by a head last time out, and should be right up there again here.
Back FREDRIKA @ 9/2
3:25 Trainer Philip Kirby has a very good 25% strike rate at this course over the last few years (15 wins from 60 runners) - LSP +£46.56 - £1 stakes
Joe Fanning takes the mount of ROCKY TWO, who is a course winner over 13f
The Kirby/Fanning partnership has a 19% strike-rate over the last 5 seasons - 3 wins from 16 - 2 of those wins in last season in 2014
Back ROCKY TWO @ 15/2
4:00 and 4:35 Trainer David O'Meara has been in fine form over the last fortnight with a 24% strike rate (LSP +£18.77), and has a 19% strike rate at Musselburgh over the last 5 seasons. He, and jockey Tudhope combine for 3 rides at Musselburgh on Friday.
Tudhope also been in good form with a 21% strike rate with 7 wins in the last 33 runs.
Back REGAL DAN & TAKAFOL @ 7/2
And finally, just a quick mention of the Punchestown Festival in Ireland, with just 2 days left now.
Willie Mullins heads into the fourth day with 10 winners so far in the festival, from 43 runners (23% SR), with 6 of those wins in Grade 1 races. A further 8 have placed, either second or third.
Once again, the trainer takes another lorry load of horses, and it'll be interesting to see how many more winners he'll get, and how many he'll finish with come the end of the festival on Saturday.
BEST BETS FOR DAY 4
4:20 BISHOPS ROAD (EW) 14/1
4:55 BURN AND TURN 5/1
6:40 ALTON BAY (EW) 13/2
Free Horse Racing Tips - Fontwell Tips
Fontwell Tips
4:30 Richard Johnston and Philip Hobbs in fine form of late, and both had a good record at this course over the last 5 seasons, though not as impressive as Nicky Henderson (38% SR from 34 runners). SANDYGATE shaped well on hurdles debut, and has every chance here, and should definitely improve on his 4th at Ludlow, up in trip to 2m4f.
SANDYGATE 7/2
Danger; Towering (11/2) - Hurdles debut. Trainer Nicky Henderson has a great record at this course over recent seasons, and in 2014-15 season, Henderson boasted an impressive 54% strike-rate in Maidens (28 wins from 52) - 51% in Maiden Hurdles (21 wins from 41). When teamed with McGrath in 14-15 they won 7 hurdles from 21 (31% SR).
5:05 BERTIE'S DESIRE returns after 174 days off the track. Ran well in 2014 with 2 wins and 3 second place finishes from his 5 runs. Step up to 2m6f for first time could well be the answer for Sherwood and Aspell partnership, which saw a 27% strike-rate in chases (2014-15) - 15 wins from 56.
BERTIE'S DESIRE 7/2
4:30 Richard Johnston and Philip Hobbs in fine form of late, and both had a good record at this course over the last 5 seasons, though not as impressive as Nicky Henderson (38% SR from 34 runners). SANDYGATE shaped well on hurdles debut, and has every chance here, and should definitely improve on his 4th at Ludlow, up in trip to 2m4f.
SANDYGATE 7/2
Danger; Towering (11/2) - Hurdles debut. Trainer Nicky Henderson has a great record at this course over recent seasons, and in 2014-15 season, Henderson boasted an impressive 54% strike-rate in Maidens (28 wins from 52) - 51% in Maiden Hurdles (21 wins from 41). When teamed with McGrath in 14-15 they won 7 hurdles from 21 (31% SR).
5:05 BERTIE'S DESIRE returns after 174 days off the track. Ran well in 2014 with 2 wins and 3 second place finishes from his 5 runs. Step up to 2m6f for first time could well be the answer for Sherwood and Aspell partnership, which saw a 27% strike-rate in chases (2014-15) - 15 wins from 56.
BERTIE'S DESIRE 7/2
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